The Plane that vanished

Just after midnight on 7 March 2014, Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight Nos 370, bound for Beijing, departed Kuala Lumpur International Airport with 239 persons on board. The plane was a Boeing 777-200ER.

The aircrew last communicated with air traffic control around 38 minutes after take-off, when the flight was over the South China Sea. 

The aircraft disappeared from ATC radar screens minutes later. Yet, military radar tracked it for another hour, deviating westwards from its planned flight path, crossing the Malay Peninsula and the Andaman Sea. Finally, it left radar range 370 km northwest of Penang Island.

The passengers, crew and aircraft flew into the night. Nine years later, what became of flight 370 remains a mystery. That a modern jet, with the latest communications system, can vanish is both baffling and worrisome. 

The aircraft's disappearance was the deadliest incident involving a Boeing 777 and in the history of MAS. Unfortunately, that was surpassed in both regards four months later when a missile took down MAS flight 17 over Ukraine. These two events brought the near collapse of MAS. As a result, the Malaysian government intervened in August 2014 to re-nationalise the airline.

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah commanded the flight and flew the take-off. He ordered 49,100 kg of fuel, which gave an endurance of seven hours and 31 minutes for a planned flight of five hours and 34 minutes. The reserve fuel was within specified guidelines. 

The plane rolled off the production line in May 2002 and joined Malaysia Airways on 3 June 2002. It remained under the control of MAS after delivery except for a short duration at Pudong, Shanghai Airport, China, in August 2012, when it underwent a wing tip repair by Boeing. 

An examination of records indicates that MAS maintained the aircraft and all its systems in compliance with recommended procedures. 

At first, the search focused on the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea along the expected flight route. Then later analysis of automated communications with an Inmarsat satellite indicated a possible crash site in the southern Indian Ocean.

Eventually, the Australians assumed command of the search operation.

In 2015 and 2016, several aircraft debris pieces washed ashore on the southeastern coasts of Africa, the Islands of Madagascar, Mauritius and Réunion. An analysis of ocean currents suggested this debris had drifted from the west of Australia.

Two pieces of the washed-up debris had identification numbers tied to the lost aircraft. A further 15 items were deemed "likely," "highly likely", or "almost certainly" from the downed plane. These either had partial serial numbers or other indicators. Unfortunately, the investigators couldn't identify seven other items, although these were plane parts. 

After a three-year effort failed to locate the plane, the Australians suspended the search in January 2017. Private contractors launched a second search in January 2018, which shut down after six months.

There are many theories for what happened to fight 370. Some of these speculations are far-fetched as armchair experts enjoy their 15 minutes of fame on the Internet. Yet, even among the real experts, there is no consensus. 

By international convention, such events are investigated per ICAO Annex 13 — "Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation". Hence, an independent investigation team comprising 19 Malaysians and seven overseas representatives was formed. The overseas investigators came from the UK, Australia, China, France, the US, Indonesia and Singapore. Still, the final report published in July 2018 was inconclusive. 

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau initially proposed that a hypoxia event was the most likely cause. Then possible hijacking scenarios were considered, including crew involvement. Inquiries also looked at the cargo manifest. None of these elements yields anything of substance. 

The Crew Theory

And yet, much of the media speculation focused on the captain. Various media outlets suggested he committed murder-suicide because his marriage was ending. The theory goes that Captain Shah locked the first officer out of the flight deck, donned an oxygen mask and depressurised the cabin. 

At an altitude above Mount Everest, the passengers and crew would soon perish. Even if the cabin emergency oxygen system was activated, this only lasts for 15 minutes, giving enough time for a responding crew to descend to a safe altitude.

The theory then has Shah flying on until his fuel ran out.

Captain Shah was 53 years old, married with two children and had over eight thousand hours logged flying the 777, besides over 18,000-hour flying experience. He was well-regarded in MAS.

The 27-year-old first officer, Fariq Abdul Hamid, had 39 hours on type, with logged flying experience at 2800 hours. He was undergoing “checking” by the captain as part of his certification as a FO. All his required licences and certificates were valid.

When the Royal Malaysia Police seized a flight simulator from Shah's home on 15 March 2014, this fueled speculation about his role. A forensic examination found more than 2,700 coordinates for waypoints on the computer. 

The majority of these proved to be default system-generated coordinates. But, investigators found seven "manually programmed" waypoints — see the map below. These coordinates, saved on 3 February 2014, track the route the missing plane may have taken to the southern Indian Ocean. 

Was Shah rehearsing a plan? What could be his motive? Sadly there have been several instances of crashes perpetrated by suicidal pilots. For example, in 2015, Germanwings flight 9525 fell from the sky when the disturbed first officer forced the aircraft into a dive, killing himself and 150 others. 

Yet, according to the official report, the investigators found no significant changes in Shah's lifestyle, interpersonal conflicts or family stresses. Moreover, there is no record of him having secured a life insurance policy, while his gross monthly income and out-of-pocket expenses indicated nothing unusual. 

He had no known history of mental illness or anxiety. Likewise, the FO had a clear background. 

Since the official investigation, fresh evidence emerged suggesting the plane had its landing gear extended when it broke up. This finding point to an aircraft under active control by someone at the point of hitting the water. Extending the landing gear for a water landing is not recommended because it could hasten the break up of the aircraft and allow the rapid ingress of water. A pilot would know that.

Conclusions

Without a definitive cause for the disappearance, the industry focused on recommendations to prevent a repetition. These included increased battery life on underwater locator beacons, lengthened recording times on flight data and cockpit voice recorders. Also, new standards for aircraft position reporting over the open ocean came in.

Still, I'd like to know more about the captain's domestic situation and lifestyle. Because, on the balance of probabilities and circumstantial evidence, that may prove a fruitful avenue of inquiry. 

At this time, all we can say is that the evidence points toward the plane coming down in the southern Indian Ocean to the west of Australia. About the cause of the crash — we don't know.

In the event's immediate aftermath, the lack of information caused considerable distress to the survivors. As a result, there were unprecedented protests in Beijing against Malaysia and MAS. Yet, nine years after the event, the survivors continue to suffer without knowing where their families lay.

They deserve answers.