Clean Up Our Act

"Ladies and Gentleman, we will be boarding shortly. Please have your boarding pass, passport and health certificate ready for inspection. For those without a health certificate, our pre-boarding blood test is available for another 15 minutes. Thank you"

Don't act surprised at such an announcement; it or something similar is coming soon. After all, Emirates is already experimenting with a rapid blood test for passengers that detects viruses.

Meanwhile, following the lead of JetBlue, other airlines will mandate passengers wear a mask during flights. And I suspect it's only a matter of time before governments implement other precautions. Health certificates from recognised authorities is a distinct possibility. 

Thus, as the impact of Covid-19 rumbles through the aviation world, other measures are coming. Ultimately, we must recognise that passenger confidence will determine a return to flying. Thus, anything that facilitates that confidence by providing reassurance must be welcome. After all, the industry cannot survive in its present form. 

Before the onset of Covid-19, only 30 airlines world-wide enjoyed profitability. Currently, all airlines are struggling, although some are better off. US carriers, which are among the world's most robust, are likely to hold up well. In other cases, whether airlines fail may prove a political question rather than an economic one. For example, Hainan Airlines, China's fourth-largest carrier, is now in the hands of the provincial government.

Last week, British Airways announced plans to lay off 12,000 staff. This move is prompting speculation that the government may step in. Likewise, Richard Branson is seeking a bailout for Virgin. His appeal has received a less than warm reception, given the vast fortune he sits on. On the ground, layoffs and cutbacks are taking their toll.

As I've said, gaining passenger confidence will drive the rebound. Airlines that can push up that confidence will benefit. The masks wearing mentioned above is an easy and cheap option. Allied to that, cleanliness is vital. Thus, enhanced cleaning between flight will be the norm. Ultraviolet light is one option; it's fast and easy to deploy. 

I expect that concerns over in-flight air quality will come up. Questions about air-flow and replenishment need addressing. We know that filters and other technology can provide partial solutions.

Longer-term, manufacturers should explore producing planes with fixtures that are easy to clean. Greater use of detachable upholstery and fabrics must be the norm. 

Plus, the days of cramped seating may be over. In the short term, airlines will need to leave adjoining seats empty to get passenger separation. In the longer term, a reconfiguration of seating could occur to increase the distances between passengers. Of course, this has an impact on the bottom line. In turn, the whole business model and economics of flying faces unprecedented changes. The immediate assumption is ticket prices will soar.

And yet, with many planes idle and crews available in the market, overheads could fall. Certainly starting up a new operation should prove cheaper with plenty of resources awaiting use. 

Running an airline is a tough business. The industry is capital-intensive, hyper-sensitive to business cycles, currency fluctuations, the global economic climate, and geopolitics. With high-fixed costs and marginal profits, sustaining a money-making airline is a challenge. 

If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline. Richard Branson

National interests and access to routes add to those worries. Plus, when airlines operate large planes, that floods the market with seats. As a consequence ticket prices drop, making those elusive profits harder to find. For that reason, airlines will move to smaller capacity planes with the future of the A380 and the 747-400 in doubt. That's started to happen.

Looking ahead, messaging that civil aviation is a safe and healthy environment in which to travel must be a priority. Yet, how badly the industry is affected remains an open question. No one knows how long Covid-19 will last or what new policies will arrive. With the vast Chinese market the first to emerge from the pandemic, we may get an indication. Until then, it's hard to say when normal operations will return.