Cleared for takeoff ?

The above graph shows the continuing impact of Covid-19 on civil aviation. Not good is it. We have never had a moment like this before in aviation history. Even the 9/11 flight shutdown was localised and temporary.

So when will the passengers return? That's the big question, and it takes a brave man to assert an answer with any certainty. In truth, no one knows. As I before commented, passenger confidence will be the deciding factor.

In the meantime, ICAO and other agencies are thinking ahead. They have set their minds to the protocols that will underpin a return to near-normal operations. This week ICAO published the "Handbook for CAAs on the Management of Aviation Safety Risks related to COVID-19 (ICAO Doc 10144)". This document provides practical strategic guidance for national-level authorities based on risk management. 

ICAO has rightly identified the danger of seeking perfect solutions. Let's be frank — these don't exist, and the pursuit of such will only delay a service resumption. Dr Micheal Ryan, Executive Director, World Health Organisation, put it succinctly; "Perfection is the enemy of the good when it comes to emergency management." 

No matter how unpalatable, in truth, there is no zero-risk way to resume aviation operations. That's the new normal as the world resets to the menace of Covid-19. 

Meanwhile, in Europe, the aviation regulator issued guidance to ensure airfields and other facilities are safe for use. With regular activity suspended, wildlife and vegetation have encroached onto operational areas. A clean up is needed. Plus, with more than 16,000 passenger jets grounded worldwide, some have become adopted homes for wildlife. Nesting birds can find niches on planes that are ideal for their purposes.

Repairs and remedial construction is also a consideration. For instance, Tel Aviv airport had a parked Airbus 350 sink into the tarmac. Also, aircraft parked in humid climates, such as Hong Kong, can suffer rapid degradation. With parking space at a premier in low humidity locations, such as deserts, airlines have few options but to keep up a maintenance schedule. An interesting point is most aircraft are parked fully fueled in order to prevent rocking in the wind and keep systems lubricated. 

With the IATA warning that 25 million jobs are at risk, governments are keen to get aviation going again. And yet, with places like the UK struggling to find a way out of lockdown, getting folks on planes is a lower priority. So let's be realistic. 

One solution may lie with medical certificates and 'quarantine-free' corridors of travel. Under these protocols, passengers will produce proof of Covid-19 testing, and the receiving nations will then accept arrivals. Places with low instances of Covid-19 may be suitable to test this concept. I expect countries that rely on tourism should be willing to consider the idea. 

Debating the impact on civil aviation, people are split into two broad camps: those who believe the crisis will pass with a full rival of services and those who think this is the demise of the industry. As usual, reality will rest somewhere in the middle. Planes will return to the skies. Yet, no matter how unpalatable, in truth, there is no zero-risk way to resume aviation operations. That's the new normal as the world resets to the menace of Covid-19.